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In the new era of geopolitical competition and economic rivalry, what strategies should China and the UK adopt to forge a more constructive relationship?
From Kalavinka Viewpoint #8
The prevailing mood now in Europe is to view China through a security and human rights lens rather than the trade and investment approach of the past 20 years. This has been heavily influenced by the policy of successive US administrations. People make a big mistake thinking geopolitical American policy always changes with a new administration. Not having Trump tweeting at 6am is a relief, but Joe Biden is going to be as hardline over security issues and relations with China as his predecessor. For better or worse in the UK, and to a lesser extent across the EU, having diverged for a decade, driven by the prospect of more limited access to intelligence ties, we have now decided to align ourselves more closely with US policy towards China. The UK’s recent National Security and Investment Act which identifies 17 sensitive sectors, including AI and quantum computing technologies where government can block investment transactions is a close imitation of CFIUS. So, for UK corporate investors in particular there is a new tension between investment and national security. With the new legislation and dynamics around trade, businesses will have to be politically advertent. They will have to look at whether the sector they seek investment in or to invest in in partnership with overseas investors is potentially sensitive.
Globally repatriation of supply chains will become an issue. These things ebb and flow. Over the 20th century, they expanded, shrank and expanded again. But, especially as a result of Brexit, the pandemic and people’s understanding of how the vaccinations were manufactured – and as a result of our new, much poorer relationship with China – repatriation is going to be an imperative. Going forward the best way of engaging with China and Chinese investment will be to avoid sourcing from sensitive provinces, not dealing with issues that could give rise to the sort of national infrastructure security concerns that Huawei did, and engaging positively over the essential global areas for cooperation such as the UN sustainable development goals and climate change. If we don’t, we won’t see net zero by 2050. China isn’t going to disappear as an important economic powerhouse and trading and investment partner. But we need to pick and choose where we trade and cooperate. And in this climate that will require good navigation skills.
Lord C-J in the Corporate Financier on the National Security Investment Act and the new investment landscape
“People make a big mistake thinking macro American policy changes with the political parties. Not having Trump tweeting at 6am is wonderful, but Joe Biden is going to be as pragmatic over the American trade policy and is not going to suddenly rush into a deal with us.
“CFIUS has been around for an awfully long time. In a sense, you could say that our National Security and Investment Act is an imitation of CFIUS. America isn’t going to suddenly cave in on demands for agricultural imports, for instance, but again, it may be that the climate-change agenda will be more important to them.
“Then there’s the whole area of regulations. There is a rather different American culture to regulation, but now there’s more of an appetite for it around climate and the environment than there was under Trump.”
Here is the full article
What will the year of the Ox bring in UK China Relations
Lord C-J: 2020 has brought huge problems to the fore - particularly the COVID19 virus, by no means over and we hope the WHO mission to Wuhan sheds light on how to prevent further viruses from emerging and spreading. Meanwhile repression in Xinjiang and the National Security Law in Hong Kong have damaged confidence in our bilateral relations.
All Party Parliamentary China Group Annual Report 2014
Launch of China Cultural and Creative Industries Reports 2013
Last week I helped to launch a fascinating set of reports on China's creative industries edited by Professor Trish Walker and Professor Hardy Yong Xiang.
See the weblink here:
http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-642-38157-7
I've done a foreword in which I discuss the opportunities for creative partnership between Britain and China. This publication will help enormously in developing those partnerships.
Here is what I said:
Creative employment in the UK provides around two million jobs, in the creative sector itself and in creative roles in other industries. In recent times employment in the sector has grown at double the rate of the economy as a whole.
Something very important for the creative industries is also happening in China.
In business the emphasis is now on creativity. This is very much reflected in the 12th five-year plan that is underway and marks an important new approach where creative and artistic skills are being highly valued.
At the same time I have seen a great interest in China in creating partnerships with British creative industries and creators, particularly in games and new media, publishing, architecture, design, fashion, animation, music, film, radio, television and advertising, especially after the spectacle of the Olympic and Paralympic ceremonies and the success of the British pavilion at the Shanghai Expo.
We now have great opportunity for creative and artistic partnership between China and the UK. There is a real role for collaboration between us in helping developing creative industries clusters in China.
These reports will be invaluable in helping British creative industries develop a strong understanding of where they can develop partnerships in China, and I very much welcome Prof. Patricia Ann Walker and colleagues’ initiative in putting such a comprehensive publication together.
Britain and China: A Creative Partnership : LSE Confucius Institute Lecture
Lord C-J debates Iraq Crisis
Recently the London based Centre for Kurdish Progress in partnership with the Centre for Turkey Studies (CEFTUS) organised a debate on the crisis in Iraq at the House of Commons.
Over 200 hundred people attended the event. Keynote speakers included Kurdistan Regional Government High Representative to the UK Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, Former Secretary of State for Defence Dr Liam Fox Conservative MP for North Somerset, UK Representative of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) Dr Alan Semo, Lord Maurice Glasman, Mr Bill Park of Kings’ College, author and journalist Mr Patrick Cockburn, author and journalist and myself.
Director of the APPG for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, Mr Gary Kent chaired the debate.
This is what I said
Treat Kurdistan as an Equal
I’ve been a regular visitor to Kurdistan over the past 10 years and I’ve developed a huge admiration for the way that in the face of all the odds: genocide, persecution and hardship, the Kurds have built a democratic, plural and increasingly prosperous society in the very midst of some very dysfunctional neighbours.
We need to recognize the vital importance to us of the Kurds as allies
They are a bastion of civilisation, democracy and pro-western sentiment in the Middle East.
They are self critical too. What other Middle East government would have commissioned a frank Report by the Economist Intelligence Unit and follow up its recommendations.
It was published before June but even then the contrast with conditions in the rest of Iraq couldn't be starker.
They highlighted some key strengths but the key weakness is the relationship with the Bagdad Government.
That was before the change of government and the installation of a new Prime Minister but even though we nearly have a full slate of Ministers I am not overly optimistic about the ability of the parties to come an agreement on the issues which have been outstanding for many years despite many promises made: oil and gas issues;disputed territories; resources for the peshmerga and so on.
Let alone the backlog of the central government's budget contribution to the KRG.
Especially if Mr Shahristani remains a force in government.
It may well fall apart in three months time.
All this means that as the UK or the EU we can't keep trying to deal exclusively through the Bagdad Government, although of course any leverage brought to bear by them is welcome.
The KRG should to be treated as autonomous government at the very least and their aspirations to be independent as legitimate.
From here on out we need to deal direct and do whatever it takes to support them.
Historically this has not been the case whether dealing with consulate services, visas, business support, despite the fact that Iraqi Kurdistan has been by far the most promising region economically, security wise, and on every other count there has been a reluctance to recognize this.
My view is that we should have had closer relations with the KRG some time ago, going beyond UKTI type activity.
The need for direct relations at a senior level is doubly important of course today.
We have a serious situation comparable with Bosnia or Darfur or the Anfall against the Kurds by Saddam Hussein.
We are seeing Mass Killings, Rape and Abduction. Psychopathic behaviour by ISIS brigades.
We need to be clear that this constitutes Genocide.
The recent Amnesty Report "Ethnic Cleansing on a historic scale" did not used the word but that's what it is.
As the Kurdish Genocide Taskforce is calling for these acts should be investigated by the UN and referred to the ICC.
The implications are far reaching.
Unless are stopped are stopped disaster will ensue not just regionally but globally.
IDSIS recognizes no borders but the Kurds have 1000 kms to defend.
The current refugee situation alone is intolerable. 1. 4 million on top of a population of 5 million.
Kurdistan needs huge support in tackling the problem. Not from the UN alone. They need more humanitarian assistance and will need development support if their economy starts to suffer from the conflict.
As regards the military aspect I am very heartened by the PM's announcement that we will supply British Arms to the Kurds
We have now have a consensus that we must arm the Kurdish peshmerga and give them whatever resource they need to fight effectively. Not just arms but intelligence, logistics, night vision equipment and so on.
If there is any remaining public doubt it will soon be dispelled.
It is essential we play our part in air strikes.
But in all this we must treat the Kurdish people and the KRG as an essential allies in implementing a strategy to defeat or at least minimize the threat from ISIS.
That means treating them as equals from here on out. As should other members of the EU and the Regional powers such as Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Lord C-J promotes Kurdistan/UK tourism
This is a speech I gave at a recent Iraqi-Kurdistan Tourism Infrastructure Development Conference at the BIS Conference Centre-a Reflection on 10 years of development.
It's a great pleasure to be involved with an event promoting Iraqi Kurdistan.I’ve been looking back over developments in the last 10 years now since I first went to the Iraqi Kurdistan region in 2004 and its incredible what progress political, economic and social has been made since then .
As a member of of the All Party Parliamentary for Iraqi Kurdistan it's been a pleasure promoting relationships between the Region and the UK.
I made a speech about my visit in the House of Lords shortly after I got back and it is instructive to contrast then and now:
Then I was driven through South Eastern Turkey having flown to Dyarbakir and it was was a relief to arrive at the border with Iraq after so many hours. Now there is a major new British designed Hawler (Erbil) International Airport with direct flights from all over Europe
Then I complained about the attitude displayed by Turkish soldiers towards Iraqi Kurds at the border with border guards describing my literature about agriculture and education as a “problem” because it mentioned the words “Iraqi Kurdistan” .
Now there are excellent political relationship too between Presidents and PM Barzani and President Gul and PM Erdogan. The PKK issue in Turkey is beginning to be resolved too with a cease fire declared by their leader Abdullah Öcalan and a peace settlement in sight.
Trade between Turkey and Kurdistan flows freely. Turkish companies are the largest direct inward investor in the Region . Turkey is becoming directly involved in oil and gas exploration in the region
Now thanks to the freetrade approach adopted by the KRG there is huge investment by Turkey itself growing at 6-8%. Kurdistan’s growth rate is reported at 12%. There is a growing consumer economy.
Erbil itself and the other major cities are transformed . New hotels and shopping malls have sprung up in the last 10 years.
There are major Oil and gas developments. There has been significant exploration and finds from a number of medium sized companies and now oil majors such as ExxonMobil and Chevron.
10 years ago I noted the progress that had been made in providing universal education at primary and secondary levels in Kurdistan even in the smallest village and in adult education too. Now Higher Education is flourishing .Education links with Britain are growing stronger by the year symbolized by recent visit from higher education minister David Willets. Recently 21 universities visited to explore ties.
In those days there were two separate government administrations . One run by the KDP and one by the PUK. Now and for some time there is a common democratically elected parliament with regular terms of office for government following elections and the Prime Ministership has rotated between the parties on two occasions. . The government of different parties and faiths continues to be a model of pluralism.
Now we see the maturing of parliamentary opposition too.
I talked then about the absolute need for a British consulate in Erbil. Now there is vastly better representation of British interests in Kurdistan. We take the Consulate General for granted but still await proper premises in downtown Erbil and still have major UK visa frustrations !
Then the British were conspicuous by their absence in helping with the economic development of Kurdistan and building commercial ties. Now particularly in the last three years British companies have begun to get stuck in and we have seen many British companies represented at the major trade fairs. In 2011 at the Erbil Trade Fair there were 89 delegates, including 20 exhibitors, the largest UK trade delegation to the region to date, in fact the largest non Ministerial business delegation to anywhere!
There are something which were true then and I am glad to say have endured throughout the ten years
Then I said that security in the Region in contrast to the rest of Iraq thanks to the continuing presence of the peshmerga was excellent and this fact should be recognised in FCO advice. This has continued to be the case - and the FCO stresses this fact in travel and trade advice. Iraqi-Kurdistan really is an island in a sea of instability.
Then I said they had built the makings of a religiously tolerant pluralistic democratic society. It was notable that many of the Chaldean Christians retreating from the bombs in Mosul were taking refuge in Iraqi Kurdistan. Now there is a wonderful diversity of culture even more than ever in Kurdistan with a vibrant Christian quarter in Erbil in particular. Now of course the Region is absorbing a whole new set of refugees from Syria. All these elements lay the grounds for a potentially hugely successful tourism industry in Kurdistan which could become not just regional but international in nature.
I have a friend in Kurdistan who is passionate about the preservation of its cultural heritage and get regular updates on developments!
Bayan has mentioned some amazing sites. I've only been to a few of them.
Some cities in Kurdistan go back 8000 years to the dawn of civilisation like the UNESCO protected citadel of Erbil.
There is the Assyrian aqueduct -the largest in the world built by Sennecherib in 700 BCE and the site of Alexander the Great's famous battle against Darius III the Persian Ruler at Gaugamela IN 331 BCE.
There are the extraordinary Yazidi temples at Lalish
There is so much to see.
Now it even appears that the Hanging Gardens were not in Babylon but in Northern Iraq!
Allied to the history -and we must never forget that part of that history are some of the recent tragedies during the Anfall under Saddam Husedsein's rule and the genocide at Halabja in particular, now recognized as such by Parliament -there-is Kurdistan's extraordinary scenery -the spectacular Zagros mountains and dramatic waterfalls.
The mountains will be the friends of Kurdish tourism I hope!
Every year the tourism infrastructure in terms of transport links and much better quality hotels and hospitality offer-and shopping!- has improved.
All this will I am sure lead to a huge growth in tourism in Kurdistan. I am a great believer in the power of tourism to generate economic growth and employment and spend time urging government to do more here to release the potential.
I know the KRG are very aware of the potential importance of tourism to Kurdistan and I am absolutely delighted to help open today's proceedings and hand over to the Minister who is going to give us all the information we need to encourage investment in tourism and hospitality!
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